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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."