🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

But the latest race is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and longtime also-rans improving collectively. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still